Overconfidence Explains Failure Rates

Thanks to the Nudge blog, I found two interesting reads. They both deal with overconfidence. Overconfidence in our ability to learn as consumers for instance leads us to buy stuff thinking we can easily pick things up, like playing a new sport or a do-it-yourself project. This also explains the high drop out or non-completion rates observed in technical training. Overconfidence also leads entrepreneurs to start new ventures that have a low probability of success.

How would better policies inform the decisions of such actors to produce better outcomes, I wonder.